Senate lawmakers voted 51-48 to approve a revised version of a GOP-crafted budget resolution in the early hours of April 5, with just two Republicans breaking ranks, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine, to join with all Democrats who opposed it. 

Budget resolutions are non-binding and don’t become law, but when both the House and Senate pass identical resolutions, they move to advance a reconciliation bill that ultimately can become law. A reconciliation bill, which goes through an expedited approval process, incorporates specific top-line debt limits, spending caps and cuts, and tax credits outlined in the budget resolutions. 

The Senate bill would increase the amount of allowable debt to $5.8 trillion through fiscal 2034, more than double that of the $2.8 trillion allowed in the version passed by the House March 5. 

With that much debt, lawmakers will look for places to make additional cuts, particularly for programs that are out of alignment with White House priorities, political observers say. 

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) said at an April 4 press briefing that the Senate bill would “decimate Medicaid, housing, veterans, SNAP and more, all in pursuit of tax cuts for their billionaires’ club.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), said in a statement that it is a priority of the White House and GOP leadership “to stop Democrats from imposing an automatic $4 trillion tax hike on the American people at the end of this year,” referring to a group of tax cuts that were included in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which were set to expire at the end of 2025.

Construction industry groups including the American Council of Engineering Cos. have said that extending the tax breaks in the 2017 law—which include deductions for pass-through entities like S-Corporations and LLCs—is a top priority for their members.  

But renewable energy advocates worry that many construction projects that would be incentivized by tax credits in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act might never come to fruition. 

“Republican leadership has really signaled that many funding programs, tax credits and other federal activities are under scrutiny right now,” says Lesley Hunter, senior vice president of policy and engagement at the American Council of Renewable Energy (ACORE). 

Stephanie Gagnon Rodriguez, manager for regional programs at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, adds, “I think everyone’s really concerned about the prospect of repealing or changing the credits in the Inflation Reduction Act.” Tax credits that could be particularly vulnerable would be those out of favor with the current administration, such as, potentially, the 45X and 30D credits supporting investment in manufacturing facilities for advanced energy products, she says.

“A lot of companies made investments … under the assumption and the understanding that they would have access to these credits for 10 years. When we start to see Congress thinking about pulling back those tax credits, or changing the most important pieces of them, or reducing the amount of money in them, we’re seeing that these companies are starting to get concerned about the future of those investments and starting to walk back what that might look like,” Rodriguez says. 

An ACORE survey found that clean energy project developers are planning to invest billions of dollars into projects as long as tax credits and policies remain in place. However, tax “uncertainty” could cause both investors and developers to reconsider, Hunter says. 

The survey found that among companies with more than $1 billion in investments, 80% responded they would significantly or moderately decrease clean energy investment plans. 

“The appetite to invest in and develop American clean energy resources today is stronger than ever,” Hunter says. “Providing the industry with policy certainty is absolutely critical to maintain the progress we’ve made and ensure continued growth in the market and the broader economy.”

The House is expected to vote on the Senate-passed measure before departing for a two-week recess in mid-April. If members are able to pass it, they would then be able to work toward passage of a reconciliation bill.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he hopes to be able to get a final reconciliation package to the White House by the end of May.